Open Letter to George W. Bush (v)

Oops! Sorry, George, I didn't mean to pee on your foot. Small island. You shouldn't sneak up on a fellow like that...

George? The more evidence that comes to light that you screwed up in Iraq, the more sure of yourself you seem to become. Why do you suppose that is?

Actually, given your background—I mean your being "born again" and all—I don't think it should surprise anyone...anyone, that is, who's familiar with what happened after a 1950's prophecy that the world was coming to an end failed to materialize. As cognitive dissonance theoretician Leon Festinger wrote:

A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

We have all experienced the futility of trying to change a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief. We are familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed through the most devastating attacks.

But man's resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it; finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view.

Especially when a dimly rational part of your mind thinks that doing so will help your party in the upcoming elections? I guess it may depend on how many flying-saucer types will be voting.