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Thursday, December 8, 2011

Think fast, or think slowly?

Daniel Kahneman (b. 1934)
Sometimes we know intuitively exactly the right thing to do.
    When a lot rides on our response, and we have time to reflect, we might be advised to examine more closely what our intuitions tell us. The statement below, from psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision-making with Amos Tversky (1937-1996), was elicited by the following question from Sam Harris (as reported on Harris's blog): "Much of your work focuses on the limitations of human intuition. Do you have any advice about when people should be especially hesitant to trust their intuitions?"
    Daniel Kahneman replied:
[People should be especially hesitant to trust their intuitions] when the stakes are high. We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: High-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action. If there is no time to reflect, then intuitively guided action may be better than freezing or paralysis, especially for the experienced decision maker. If there is time to reflect, slowing down is likely to be a good idea. The effort invested in “getting it right” should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
    Failure to heed this advice (or failure to be hesitant without having heard it) led to the folk wisdom, "Act in haste, repent at leisure." There are, of course, a number of variations, to suit the purpose: "Sin in haste, repent at leisure," "Marry in haste, repent at leisure,"1 even "Regulate in haste, repent at leisure"....
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  1. William Cowper
    by Lemuel Francis Abbott
    From William Congreve's comedy of manners, The Old Batchelour, 1693:
    Thus grief still treads upon the heels of pleasure:
    Married in haste, we may repent at leisure.

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